Saturday, April 28, 2012

2012 NFL Draft: Breaking Down Day Two Trades

Since there is a new CBA in the NFL, the traditional draft pick value chart is out of date. I have taken it upon myself to make a new one and I will be breaking down all of the trade deals to see who came out on top.

Trade 1: New York Jets acquire No. 43 pick from Seattle Seahawks for No. 47 pick, No. 154 pick and No. 232 pick.


Under the Old Value Chart: This trade is even
Under my chart: Jets underpay by the value of an early 6th


Trade 2: Chicago Bears acquire No. 45 pick from St. Louis Rams for No. 50 pick and No. 150 pick.
Under the Old Value Chart: Bears under pay by the value of a late 6th


Under my chart: Bears underpay by the value of a mid 6th
Trade 3: Green Bay Packers acquire No. 51 pick from Philadelphia Eagles for No. 59 pick and No. 123 pick.


Under the Old Value Chart:  Packers under pay by the value of a late 5th
Under my chart: Packers overpay by the value of a mid 7th


Trade 4: Tampa Bay Buccaneers acquire No. 58 pick and No. 233 pick from Houston Texans for No. 68 pick and No. 126 pick.
Under the Old Value Chart: Buccaneers underpay by the value of a late 5th


Under my chart: Buccaneers overpay by value of an early 5th
Trade 5: Green Bay Packers acquire No. 62 pick from New England Patriots for No. 90 pick and No. 163 pick.


Under the Old Value Chart: Packers get a steal and underpay by the value of an early 4th


Under my chart: Packers get a steal and underpay by the value of a mid 4th
Trade 6: Denver Broncos acquire No. 67 pick from Cleveland Browns for No. 87 pick and No. 120 pick.


Under the Old Value Chart: Broncos underpay by the value of a late 4th


Under my chart: Broncos overpay by the value of a late 7th


Trade 7: Buffalo Bills acquire No. 69 pick from Washington Redskins for No. 72 pick and No. 217 pick.
Under the Old Value Chart: Bills underpay by the value of a late 7th


Under my chart: Bills underpay by the value of an early 7th


Trade 8: San Diego Chargers acquire No. 73 pick from Miami Dolphins for No. 78 pick and No. 183 pick.


Under the Old Value Chart: Chargers overpay by the value of a late 7th


Under my chart: Chargers underpay by the value of a late 7th
Trade 9: Baltimore Ravens acquire No. 84 pick from Atlanta Falcons for No. 91 pick and No. 164 pick.


Under the Old Value Chart: Ravens underpay by the value of a mid 6th


Under my chart: Ravens get a steal and underpay by the value of a late 5th
Trade 10: San Francisco 49ers acquire No. 97 pick in 2012 and a fifth-rounder in 2013 from Indianapolis Colts for No. 92 pick in 2012 draft.


Under the Old Value Chart: This trade is even


Under my chart: This trade is even

Friday, April 27, 2012

2012 NFL Draft: Breaking Down First Round Trades Buccaneers and Broncos

Since there is a new CBA in the NFL, the traditional draft pick value chart is out of date. I have taken it upon myself to make a new one and I will be breaking down all of the trade deals to see who came out on top.

Trade #9 Denver trades the 31st and 126th pick to Tampa Bay for the 36th and 101st picks

Under the old system: This trade is dead even.

Under my chart: This trade is dead even.

Eye Test: A dead even trade. Enough said.

2012 NFL Draft: Breaking Down First Round Trades Ravens and Vikings

Since there is a new CBA in the NFL, the traditional draft pick value chart is out of date. I have taken it upon myself to make a new one and I will be breaking down all of the trade deals to see who came out on top.

Trade #8 Baltimore trades the 29th pick to Minnesota for the 35th and 98th picks.

Under the old system: Vikings overpay by a mid 6th rounder to move back in to the 1st.

Under my chart: Ravens win as Vikings overpay by the value of a late 4th round pick.

Eye Test: Vikings reach for a need. Ravens win the pick, unless the Harrison Smith turns out to solidify a weak secondary.

2012 NFL Draft: Breaking Down First Round Trades Broncos and Patriots

Since there is a new CBA in the NFL, the traditional draft pick value chart is out of date. I have taken it upon myself to make a new one and I will be breaking down all of the trade deals to see who came out on top.

Trade #7 Denver trades the 25th pick to New England for the 31st and 135th picks

Under the old system: Patriots slightly underpay for the ability to move back into the first round by the value of a early 5th round pick

Under my chart: This trade is nearly even.

Eye Test: Another surprise by the Patriots. Both teams get good value. "Eye" have to call this one a tie.

2012 NFL Draft: Breaking Down First Round Trades Patriot and Bengals

Since there is a new CBA in the NFL, the traditional draft pick value chart is out of date. I have taken it upon myself to make a new one and I will be breaking down all of the trade deals to see who came out on top.

Trade #6 Cincinnati trades the 21st pick to New England for the 27th and 93rd picks

Under the old system: The value of this trade is even.

Under my chart: The Bengals narrowly win this trade by the value of a mid 5th round pick.

Eye Test: The Patriots surprise everyone by trading up, but this is a good deal for both teams. The eye test shows this as an even trade.

2012 NFL Draft: Breaking Down First Round Trades Seahawks and Eagles

Since there is a new CBA in the NFL, the traditional draft pick value chart is out of date. I have taken it upon myself to make a new one and I will be breaking down all of the trade deals to see who came out on top.

Trade #5 Seattle trades the 11th pick to Philadelphia for the 15th, 114th, and 172 picks

Under the old system: The Eagles win the trade by underpaying by the value of an late third round pick

Under my chart: The Eagles win the trade by the value of a mid third round pick.

Eye Test: Another desperation trade, the Seahawks top targets were both taken in the top 10. While it was smart to move back, the Seahawks didn't move far enough back for who they picked and failed to maximize the value of their pick. Eagles take advantage of a team known to make mistakes under pressure.

2012 NFL Draft: Breaking Down First Round Trades Rams and Cowboys

Since there is a new CBA in the NFL, the traditional draft pick value chart is out of date. I have taken it upon myself to make a new one and I will be breaking down all of the trade deals to see who came out on top.


Trade #4 St. Louis trades the 6th pick to Dallas for the 14th and 45th picks


Under the old system: Dallas wins this nearly even trade by the value of a late 4th round pick


Under my chart: St. Louis gives back any value it gained for this draft in the Washington deal. Dallas wins the trade by the value of a late 2nd round pick


Eye Test: This deal was made from desperation. All of the Ram's first tier targets had been taken already so they had to get out of the 6th pick. Dallas takes advantage of this and gets a good player at a great value. Dallas wins.

2012 NFL Draft: Breaking Down First Round Trades Buccaneers and Jaguars

Since there is a new CBA in the NFL, the traditional draft pick value chart is out of date. I have taken it upon myself to make a new one and I will be breaking down all of the trade deals to see who came out on top.

Trade #3 Tampa Bay trades the 5th pick to Jacksonville for the 7th and 101st picks

Under the old system: The trade nearly breaks even, but Jacksonville win the trade by underpaying by the value of an early 4th round pick

Under my chart: Tampa Bay got robbed. Jacksonville should have had to give up an early second round pick to swap spots. Jacksonville wins the trade.

Eye Test: I don't understand why Tampa made this deal. Perhaps they didn't like Claiborne, perhaps they just wanted more picks. Regardless of the reason why the trade was made, Jacksonville clearly comes out on top.

2012 NFL Draft: Breaking Down First Round Trades Browns and Vikings

Since there is a new CBA in the NFL, the traditional draft pick value chart is out of date. I have taken it upon myself to make a new one and I will be breaking down all of the trade deals to see who came out on top.

Trade #2 Minnesota trades the 3rd pick to Cleveland for the 4th, 118th, 139th, and 211th picks

Under the old system: The Vikings gets robbed in this deal by the value of a late second round pick. Cleveland wins the trade

Under my chart: I would say that the Browns underpay for the Viking's pick by the value of an early 4th round pick. Browns win the trade

Eye Test: I think this too is a win-win for both teams. The Browns had 13 picks coming into the draft so giving up 3 late round picks is not particularly damaging. The Vikings get 3 extra picks and still get the player who everyone thought that they were targeting anyway. The eye test says in spite of the difference in value, the Vikings in the trade.

2012 NFL Draft: Breaking Down First Round Trades Rams and Redskins

Since there is a new CBA in the NFL, the traditional draft pick value chart is out of date. I have taken it upon myself to make a new one and I will be breaking down all of the trade deals to see who came out on top.

Trade #1 St. Louis trades the 2nd pick to Washington for the 6th, and 39th picks in 2012 plus a first round pick in 2013 and 2014.

Under the old system: According to the draft value chart, the value of the 2013 and 2014 picks add up to the same value of the 41st pick this year. A clear undervaluing of those picks and as far as pure value of the picks the Rams should have gotten more. Washington wins the trade.

Under my chart: I would say that the Redskins overpaid for the 2nd overall pick by the value of a late second round pick in this year draft. While overpaying this much is reasonable when you are talking about getting a franchise quarterback, the Rams come out on top in this trade.

Eye Test: I think this is a win-win for both teams. The Rams get picks, the Redskins get a quarterback who should start for a decade. But the luster will be off this trade by the time the next two drafts roll around so I have to give a slight edge on this trade to the Rams.